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Industry section overview--including figures

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@ -233,14 +233,11 @@ The following figure shows the unclustered European gas transmission network bas
.. image:: ../graphics/gas_pipeline_figure.png
Biomass
============
Biomass supply
---------------
Biomass Supply
=====================
Biomass supply potentials for each European country are taken from the `JRC ENSPRESO database <http://data.europa.eu/89h/74ed5a04-7d74-4807-9eab-b94774309d9f>`_ where data is available for various years (2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050) and scenarios (low, medium, high). No biomass import from outside Europe is assumed. More information on the data set can be found `here <https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC98626>`_.
Solid biomass demand
Biomass demand
=====================
@ -254,19 +251,19 @@ Feedstocks categorized as solid biomass, e.g. secondary forest residues or munic
Feedstocks labeled as not included are ignored by the model.
A `typical use case for biomass <https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.09563>`_ would be the medium availability scenario for 2030 where only residues from agriculture and forestry as well as biodegradable municipal waste are considered as energy feedstocks. Fuel crops are avoided because they compete with scarce land for food production, while primary wood, as well as wood chips and pellets, are avoided because of concerns about sustainability . See the supporting materials of the `paper <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032117302034>`_ for more details.
Solid biomass conversion and use
----------------------------------
*Solid biomass conversion and use*
Solid biomass can be used directly to provide process heat up to 500 C in the industry. It can also be burnt in CHP plants and boilers associated with heating systems. These technologies are described elsewhere [link to heat and industry sections].
Solid biomass can be converted to syngas if the option is enabled in the `config file <https://github.com/PyPSA/pypsa-eur-sec/blob/3daff49c9999ba7ca7534df4e587e1d516044fc3/config.default.yaml#L274>`_. In this case the model will enable the technology BioSNG both with and without the option for carbon capture [link to technology data].
Liquefaction of solid biomass `can be enabled <https://github.com/PyPSA/pypsa-eur-sec/blob/3daff49c9999ba7ca7534df4e587e1d516044fc3/config.default.yaml#L273>`_ allowing the model to convert it into liquid hydrocarbons that can replace conventional oil products. This technology also comes with and without carbon capture [link to technology data].
Transport of solid biomass
---------------------------
*Transport of solid biomass*
The transport of solid biomass can either be assumed unlimited between countries or it can be associated with a country specific cost per MWh/km. In the config file these options are toggled `here <https://github.com/PyPSA/pypsa-eur-sec/blob/3daff49c9999ba7ca7534df4e587e1d516044fc3/config.default.yaml#L270>`_. If the option is off, use of solid biomass is transport. If it is turned on, a biomass transport network will be `created <https://github.com/PyPSA/pypsa-eur-sec/blob/3daff49c9999ba7ca7534df4e587e1d516044fc3/scripts/prepare_sector_network.py#L1803>`_ between all nodes. This network resembles road transport of biomass and the cost of transportation is a variable cost which is proportional to distance and a country specific cost per MWh/km. The latter is `estimated <https://github.com/PyPSA/pypsa-eur-sec/blob/3daff49c9999ba7ca7534df4e587e1d516044fc3/scripts/build_biomass_transport_costs.py>`_ from the country specific costs per ton/km used in the publication `“The JRC-EU-TIMES model. Bioenergy potentials for EU and neighbouring countries” <https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC98626>`_.
Biogas transport and use
------------------------
*Biogas transport and use*
Biogas will be aggregated into a common European resources if a gas network is not modeled explicitly, i.e., the `gas_network <https://github.com/PyPSA/pypsa-eur-sec/blob/3daff49c9999ba7ca7534df4e587e1d516044fc3/config.default.yaml#L261>`_ option is set to false. If, on the other hand, a gas network is included, the biogas potential will be associated with each node of origin.
The model can only use biogas by first upgrading it to natural gas quality [link to tech description] (bio methane) which is fed into the general gas network.
@ -289,19 +286,48 @@ $$
with costs as included from the `technology-data repository <https://github.com/PyPSA/technology-data/blob/master/latex_tables/tables_in_latex.pdf>`_. The waste heat from the Fischer-Tropsch process is supplied to `district heating networks <https://github.com/PyPSA/pypsa-eur-sec/blob/3daff49c9999ba7ca7534df4e587e1d516044fc3/config.default.yaml#L255>`_. The share of fossil and synthetic oil is an optimisation result depending on the techno-economic assumptions.
Oil-based transport
========================
*Oil-based transport*
Liquid hydrocarbons are assumed to be transported freely among the model region since future demand is predicted to be low, transport costs for liquids are low and no bottlenecks are expected.
Industry demand
================
Based on materials demand from JRC-IDEES and other sources such as the USGS for ammonia.
Industry demand is split into a dozen different sectors with specific energy demands, process
emissions of carbon dioxide, as well as existing and prospective mitigation strategies.
Industry is split into many sectors, including iron and steel, ammonia, other basic chemicals, cement, non-metalic minerals, alumuninium, other non-ferrous metals, pulp, paper and printing, food, beverages and tobacco, and other more minor sectors.
Subsection overview (link to section overview) provides a general description of the modelling approach for the industry sector. The following subsections describe the current energy demands, available mitigation strategies, and whether mitigation is exogenously fixed or co-optimised with the other components of the model for each industry subsector in more detail. See details for Iron and Steel (link to subsection Iron and Steel), Chemicals Industry (link to subsection Chemicals Industry), Ammonia (link to subsection Ammonia), Non-metallic Mineral products (link to subsection Non-metallic products), Non-ferrous Metals (link to subsection Non-ferrous Metals), Other Industry Subsectors (link to subsection Other Industry Subsectors).
Inside each country the industrial demand is distributed using the `Hotmaps Industrial Database <https://gitlab.com/hotmaps/industrial_sites/industrial_sites_Industrial_Database>`_.
*Overview*
Greenhouse gas emissions associated with industry can be classified into energy-related and process-related emissions. Today, fossil fuels are used for process heat energy in the chemicals industry, but also as a non-energy feedstock for chemicals like ammonia (NH3), ethylene (C2H4) and methanol (CH3OH). Energy-related emissions can be curbed by using low-emission energy sources. The only option to reduce process-related emissions is by using an alternative manufacturing process or by assuming a certain rate of recycling so that a lower amount of virgin material is needed.
The overarching modelling procedure can be described as follows. First, the energy demands and process emissions for every unit of material output are estimated based on data from the `JRC-IDEES database <https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/182725>`_ and the fuel and process switching described in the subsequent sections. Second, the 2050 energy demands and process emissions are calculated using the per-unit-of-material ratios based on the industry transformations and the `country-level material production in 2015 <https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/182725>`_, assuming constant material demand.
Missing or too coarsely aggregated data in the JRC-IDEES database is supplemented with additional datasets: `Eurostat energy balances <https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/energy/data/energy-balances>`_, `United States <https://www.usgs.gov/media/files/%20nitrogen-2017-xlsx>`_, `Geological Survey <https://www.usgs.gov/media/files/%20nitrogen-2017-xlsx>`_ for ammonia production, `DECHEMA <https://dechema.de/dechema_media/Downloads/Positionspapiere/Technology_study_Low_carbon_energy_and_feedstock_for_the_European_chemical_industry.pdf>`_ for methanol and chlorine, and `national statistics from Switzerland <https://www.bfe.admin.ch/bfe/de/home/versorgung/statistik-und-geodaten/energiestatistiken.html>`_.
Where there are fossil and electrified alternatives for the same process (e.g. in glass manufacture or drying), we assume that the process is completely electrified. Current electricity demands (lighting, air compressors, motor drives, fans, pumps) will remain electric. Processes that require temperatures below 500 °C are supplied with solid biomass, since we assume that residues and wastes are not suitable for high-temperature applications. We see solid biomass use primarily in the pulp and paper industry, where it is already widespread, and in food, beverages and tobacco, where it replaces natural gas. Industries which require high temperatures (above 500 °C), such as metals, chemicals and non-metallic minerals are either electrified where suitable processes already exist, or the heat is provided with synthetic methane.
Hydrogen for high-temperature process heat is not part of the model currently.
Where process heat is required, our approach depends on the necessary temperature. For example, due to the high share of high-temperature process heat demand (see `Naegler et al. <https://doi.org/10.1002/er.3436>`_ and `Rehfeldt el al. <https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12053-017-9571-y>`_), we disregard geothermal and solar thermal energy as sources for process heat since they cannot attain high-temperature heat.
The following figure shows the final consumption of energy and non-energy feedstocks in industry today in comparison to the scenario in 2050 assumed in `Neumann et al <https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.05816>`_.
.. image:: ../graphics/fec_industry_today_tomorrow.png
The following figure shows the process emissions in industry today (top bar) and in 2050 without
carbon capture (bottom bar) assumed in `Neumann et al <https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.05816>`_.
.. image:: ../graphics/process-emissions.png
Inside each country the industrial demand is then distributed using the `Hotmaps Industrial Database <https://zenodo.org/record/4687147#.YvOaxhxBy5c>`_, which is illustrated in the figure below. This open database includes georeferenced industrial sites of energy-intensive industry sectors in EU28, including cement, basic chemicals, glass, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, non-metallic minerals, paper, and refineries subsectors. The use of this spatial dataset enables the calculation of regional and process-specific energy demands. This approach assumes that there will be no significant migration of energy-intensive industries.
.. image:: ../graphics/hotmaps.png
Industry supply