new config options for demand in aviation + HVC, control of ICE shares in land transport and agriculture

config.default.yaml

@@ -178,19 +178,25 @@ sector:
   bev_avail_mean: 0.8
   v2g: true #allows feed-in to grid from EV battery
   #what is not EV or FCEV is oil-fuelled ICE
-  land_transport_fuel_cell_share:  # 1 means all FCEVs
+  land_transport_fuel_cell_share:
     2020: 0
     2030: 0.05
     2040: 0.1
     2050: 0.15
-  land_transport_electric_share:  # 1 means all EVs
+  land_transport_electric_share:
     2020: 0
     2030: 0.25
     2040: 0.6
     2050: 0.85
+  land_transport_ice_share:
+    2020: 1
+    2030: 0.7
+    2040: 0.3
+    2050: 0
   transport_fuel_cell_efficiency: 0.5
   transport_internal_combustion_efficiency: 0.3
   agriculture_machinery_electric_share: 0
+  agriculture_machinery_oil_share: 1
   agriculture_machinery_fuel_efficiency: 0.7 # fuel oil per use
   agriculture_machinery_electric_efficiency: 0.3 # electricity per use
   MWh_MeOH_per_MWh_H2: 0.8787 # in LHV, source: DECHEMA (2017): Low carbon energy and feedstock for the European chemical industry , pg. 64.
@@ -202,6 +208,8 @@ sector:
   shipping_oil_share: 0
   shipping_methanol_efficiency: 0.46 # 10-15% higher https://www.iea-amf.org/app/webroot/files/file/Annex%20Reports/AMF_Annex_56.pdf, https://users.ugent.be/~lsileghe/documents/extended_abstract.pdf
   shipping_oil_efficiency: 0.40 #For conversion of fuel oil to propulsion in 2011
+  aviation_demand_factor: 1. # relative aviation demand compared to today
+  HVC_demand_factor: 1. # relative HVC demand compared to today
   time_dep_hp_cop: true #time dependent heat pump coefficient of performance
   heat_pump_sink_T: 55. # Celsius, based on DTU / large area radiators; used in build_cop_profiles.py
    # conservatively high to cover hot water and space heating in poorly-insulated buildings

doc/release_notes.rst

@@ -88,6 +88,11 @@ incorporates retrofitting options to hydrogen.
 
 * Improved network plots including better legends, hydrogen retrofitting network display, and change to EqualEarth projection.
 
+* New config options for changing energy demands in aviation
+  (``aviation_demand_factor``) and HVC industry (``HVC_demand_factor``), as well
+  as explicit ICE shares for land transport (``land_transport_ice_share``) and
+  agriculture machinery (``agriculture_machinery_oil_share``).
+
 **Bugfixes**
 
 * The CO2 sequestration limit implemented as GlobalConstraint (introduced in the previous version)

scripts/prepare_sector_network.py

@@ -1273,13 +1273,15 @@ def add_land_transport(n, costs):
 
     fuel_cell_share = get(options["land_transport_fuel_cell_share"], investment_year)
     electric_share = get(options["land_transport_electric_share"], investment_year)
-    ice_share = 1 - fuel_cell_share - electric_share
+    ice_share = get(options["land_transport_ice_share"], investment_year)
     
-    print("FCEV share", fuel_cell_share)
+    total_share = fuel_cell_share + electric_share + ice_share
-    print("EV share", electric_share)
+    if total_share != 1:
-    print("ICEV share", ice_share)
+        logger.warning(f"Total land transport shares sum up to {total_share*100}%, corresponding to increased or decreased demand assumptions.")
 
-    assert ice_share >= 0, "Error, more FCEV and EV share than 1."
+    logger.info(f"FCEV share: {fuel_cell_share*100}%")
+    logger.info(f"EV share: {electric_share*100}%")
+    logger.info(f"ICEV share: {ice_share*100}%")
 
     nodes = pop_layout.index
 
@@ -2321,15 +2323,23 @@ def add_industry(n, costs):
         lifetime=costs.at['Fischer-Tropsch', 'lifetime']
     )
 
+    demand_factor = options.get("HVC_demand_factor", 1)
+    p_set = demand_factor * industrial_demand.loc[nodes, "naphtha"].sum() / 8760
+    if demand_factor != 1:
+        logger.warning(f"Changing HVC demand by {demand_factor*100-100:+.2f}%.")
+
     n.madd("Load",
         ["naphtha for industry"],
         bus=spatial.oil.nodes,
         carrier="naphtha for industry",
-        p_set=industrial_demand.loc[nodes, "naphtha"].sum() / 8760
+        p_set=p_set
     )
 
+    demand_factor = options.get("aviation_demand_factor", 1)
     all_aviation = ["total international aviation", "total domestic aviation"]
-    p_set = pop_weighted_energy_totals.loc[nodes, all_aviation].sum(axis=1).sum() * 1e6 / 8760
+    p_set = demand_factor * pop_weighted_energy_totals.loc[nodes, all_aviation].sum(axis=1).sum() * 1e6 / 8760
+    if demand_factor != 1:
+        logger.warning(f"Changing aviation demand by {demand_factor*100-100:+.2f}%.")
 
     n.madd("Load",
         ["kerosene for aviation"],
@@ -2480,8 +2490,11 @@ def add_agriculture(n, costs):
     # machinery
 
     electric_share = get(options["agriculture_machinery_electric_share"], investment_year)
-    assert electric_share <= 1.
+    oil_share = get(options["agriculture_machinery_oil_share"], investment_year)
-    ice_share = 1 - electric_share
+
+    total_share = electric_share + oil_share
+    if total_share != 1:
+        logger.warning(f"Total agriculture machinery shares sum up to {total_share*100}%, corresponding to increased or decreased demand assumptions.")
 
     machinery_nodal_energy = pop_weighted_energy_totals.loc[nodes, "total agriculture machinery"]
 
@@ -2497,16 +2510,16 @@ def add_agriculture(n, costs):
             p_set=electric_share / efficiency_gain * machinery_nodal_energy * 1e6 / 8760,
         )
 
-    if ice_share > 0:
+    if oil_share > 0:
 
         n.madd("Load",
             ["agriculture machinery oil"],
             bus=spatial.oil.nodes,
             carrier="agriculture machinery oil",
-            p_set=ice_share * machinery_nodal_energy.sum() * 1e6 / 8760
+            p_set=oil_share * machinery_nodal_energy.sum() * 1e6 / 8760
         )
 
-        co2 = ice_share * machinery_nodal_energy.sum() * 1e6 / 8760 * costs.at["oil", 'CO2 intensity']
+        co2 = oil_share * machinery_nodal_energy.sum() * 1e6 / 8760 * costs.at["oil", 'CO2 intensity']
 
         n.add("Load",
             "agriculture machinery oil emissions",