# -*- coding: utf-8 -*- # SPDX-FileCopyrightText: : 2023 @LukasFranken, The PyPSA-Eur Authors # # SPDX-License-Identifier: MIT """ This rule extracts potential and cost for electricity generation through enhanced geothermal systems. For this, we use data from "From hot rock to useful energy..." by Aghahosseini, Breyer (2020) 'https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115769' Note that we input data used here is not the same as in the paper, but was passed on by the authors. The data provides a lon-lat gridded map of Europe (1° x 1°), with each grid cell assigned a heat potential (in GWh) and a cost (in EUR/MW). This scripts overlays that map with the network's regions, and builds a csv with CAPEX, OPEX and p_nom_max """ import logging logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) import json import geopandas as gpd import numpy as np import pandas as pd import xarray as xr from shapely.geometry import Polygon def prepare_egs_data(egs_file): """ Processes the original .json file EGS data to a more human-readable format. """ with open(egs_file) as f: jsondata = json.load(f) def point_to_square(p, lon_extent=1.0, lat_extent=1.0): try: x, y = p.coords.xy[0][0], p.coords.xy[1][0] except IndexError: return p return Polygon( [ [x - lon_extent / 2, y - lat_extent / 2], [x - lon_extent / 2, y + lat_extent / 2], [x + lon_extent / 2, y + lat_extent / 2], [x + lon_extent / 2, y - lat_extent / 2], ] ) years = [2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050] lcoes = ["LCOE50", "LCOE100", "LCOE150"] egs_data = dict() for year in years: df = pd.DataFrame(columns=["Lon", "Lat", "CAPEX", "HeatSust", "PowerSust"]) for lcoe in lcoes: for country_data in jsondata[lcoe]: try: country_df = pd.DataFrame( columns=df.columns, index=range(len(country_data[0][years.index(year)]["Lon"])), ) except TypeError: country_df = pd.DataFrame(columns=df.columns, index=range(0)) for col in df.columns: country_df[col] = country_data[0][years.index(year)][col] if country_df.dropna().empty: continue elif df.empty: df = country_df.dropna() else: df = pd.concat((df, country_df.dropna()), ignore_index=True) gdf = gpd.GeoDataFrame( df.drop(columns=["Lon", "Lat"]), geometry=gpd.points_from_xy(df.Lon, df.Lat) ).reset_index(drop=True) gdf["geometry"] = gdf.geometry.apply(lambda geom: point_to_square(geom)) egs_data[year] = gdf return egs_data def prepare_capex(prepared_data): """ The source paper provides only data for year and regions where LCOE < 100Euro/MWh. However, this implementations starts with the costs for 2020 for all regions and then adjusts the costs according to the user's chosen setting in the config file. As such, for regions where cost data is available only from, say, 2035, we need to reverse-engineer the costs for 2020. This is done in the following (unfortunately verbose) function. """ default_year = 2020 # obtains all available CAPEX data capex_df = pd.DataFrame(columns=prepared_data.keys()) for year in capex_df.columns: year_data = prepared_data[year].groupby("geometry").mean().reset_index() for g in year_data.geometry: if not g in year_data.geometry.tolist(): # weird but apparently necessary continue capex_df.loc[g, year] = year_data.loc[ year_data.geometry == g, "CAPEX" ].values[0] capex_df = capex_df.loc[:, default_year:] # fill up missing values assuming cost reduction factors similar to existing values for sooner, later in zip(capex_df.columns[::-1][1:], capex_df.columns[::-1]): missing_mask = capex_df[sooner].isna() cr_factor = ( capex_df.loc[~missing_mask, later] / capex_df.loc[~missing_mask, sooner] ) capex_df.loc[missing_mask, sooner] = ( capex_df.loc[missing_mask, later] / cr_factor.mean() ) # harmonice capacity and CAPEX p_nom_max = prepared_data[2050].groupby("geometry")["PowerSust"].mean() p_nom_max = p_nom_max.loc[p_nom_max > 0] capex_df = capex_df.loc[p_nom_max.index] data = ( pd.concat((capex_df[default_year], p_nom_max), axis=1) .reset_index() .rename(columns={2020: "CAPEX"}) ) return gpd.GeoDataFrame(data, geometry=data.geometry) def get_capacity_factors(network_regions_file, air_temperatures_file): """ Performance of EGS is higher for lower temperatures, due to more efficient air cooling Data from Ricks et al.: The Role of Flexible Geothermal Power in Decarbonized Elec Systems. """ # these values are taken from the paper's # Supplementary Figure 20 from https://zenodo.org/records/7093330 # and relate deviations of the ambient temperature from the year-average # ambient temperature to EGS capacity factors. delta_T = [-15, -10, -5, 0, 5, 10, 15, 20] cf = [1.17, 1.13, 1.07, 1, 0.925, 0.84, 0.75, 0.65] x = np.linspace(-15, 20, 200) y = np.interp(x, delta_T, cf) upper_x = np.linspace(20, 25, 50) m_upper = (y[-1] - y[-2]) / (x[-1] - x[-2]) upper_y = upper_x * m_upper - x[-1] * m_upper + y[-1] lower_x = np.linspace(-20, -15, 50) m_lower = (y[1] - y[0]) / (x[1] - x[0]) lower_y = lower_x * m_lower - x[0] * m_lower + y[0] x = np.hstack((lower_x, x, upper_x)) y = np.hstack((lower_y, y, upper_y)) network_regions = gpd.read_file(network_regions_file).set_crs(epsg=4326) index = network_regions["name"] air_temp = xr.open_dataset(air_temperatures_file) snapshots = pd.date_range(freq="h", **snakemake.params.snapshots) capacity_factors = pd.DataFrame(index=snapshots) # bespoke computation of capacity factors for each bus. # Considering the respective temperatures, we compute # the deviation from the average temperature and relate it # to capacity factors based on the data from above. for bus in index: temp = air_temp.sel(name=bus).to_dataframe()["temperature"] capacity_factors[bus] = np.interp((temp - temp.mean()).values, x, y) return capacity_factors if __name__ == "__main__": if "snakemake" not in globals(): from _helpers import mock_snakemake snakemake = mock_snakemake( "build_egs_potentials", clusters=37, ) egs_config = snakemake.params["sector"]["enhanced_geothermal"] costs_config = snakemake.params["costs"] egs_data = prepare_egs_data(snakemake.input.egs_cost) egs_data = prepare_capex(egs_data) egs_regions = egs_data.geometry network_regions = ( gpd.read_file(snakemake.input.regions) .set_index("name", drop=True) .set_crs(epsg=4326) ) overlap_matrix = pd.DataFrame( index=network_regions.index, columns=egs_data.index, ) for name, polygon in network_regions.geometry.items(): overlap_matrix.loc[name] = ( egs_regions.intersection(polygon).area ) / egs_regions.area overlap_matrix.to_csv(snakemake.output["egs_overlap"]) # the share of heat that is replenished from the earth's core. # we are not constraining ourselves to the sustainable share, but # inversely apply it to our underlying data, which refers to the # sustainable heat. Source: Relative magnitude of sustainable heat vs # nonsustainable heat in the paper "From hot rock to useful energy..." sustainability_factor = egs_config["sustainability_factor"] egs_data["p_nom_max"] = egs_data["PowerSust"] / sustainability_factor egs_data[["p_nom_max", "CAPEX"]].to_csv(snakemake.output["egs_potentials"]) capacity_factors = get_capacity_factors( snakemake.input["regions"], snakemake.input["air_temperature"], ) capacity_factors.to_csv(snakemake.output["egs_capacity_factors"])